Prediction market

What a prediction market is

A prediction market is an exchange for event contracts: contracts that pay a fixed amount if a stated event happens and nothing if it does not. Users buy and sell those contracts with each other at prices between zero and one dollar, and the price at any moment reads as the crowd's estimate of how likely the event is. A contract trading at 70 cents implies roughly a 70 percent chance. When the event resolves, each contract settles at one dollar or at zero.

Markets cover elections, economics, weather and sports. Kalshi and Polymarket are two examples. The defining features are that you trade against other users rather than a house, that prices move as opinions change, and that you can exit a position before settlement by selling it to someone else.

An example

A hypothetical market asks whether a team wins Sunday's game. On Tuesday the yes contract trades at 55 cents. The starting quarterback is ruled out on Friday and the price falls to 40 cents. A trader who bought at 55 can hold to settlement or sell at 40 and take the smaller loss now.

How Speed Survivor is different

Speed Survivor also asks yes-or-no questions about what will happen, but it is a contest, not a market. A live question has no price and nothing trades: every entrant answers the same question at the same time, scores base points for a correct answer plus a speed bonus for a fast one, and competes for a prize pool funded by the entries. Speed Labs sets the question, never a price, and takes no position. You cannot exit a question early, and the result is your rank among the survivors when the game ends. The Kalshi comparison goes further, and how it works covers a full game.